We saw last time what reckless reliance on close polling led to. The omertà on rejoining has now been broken, but it would be folly to move too soon

When I hear that word again, a shudder runs down my spine. I want to groan, hold my head in my hands and wail. The horror! No, never again, not another referendum. But the idea is back in play as Andy Burnham looks for ways to reverse a decade of economic stagnation.

As the prime minister dared to unlock the door to a Brussels reunion, you could hear Ode to Joy burst out from all remainers. But the prospect of a re-run of the most self-destructive vote in our history is dismaying.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

The current system is unable to quench the public thirst for locking people up – and certainly doesn’t ensure proper care once they are released

Public services need more investment across the board. Every day, another wretched story. Look at the Institute for Government’s (IFG) Public Services Performance Tracker for a plain assessment of A&E corridor care, councils struggling to meet the demands of social care and the Send system, the courts backlog, GP caseloads or families lost in temporary accommodation. A chancellor approaching a budget is besieged by need. It’s easy for us journalists to pick out shock stories and claim each one is an absolute priority, but how should a chancellor choose?

Today it’s the probation officers, whose conference in Newcastle is launching a ballot for industrial action. Their caseloads overflowed long ago, but now thousands of prisoners released early – 2,000 this month – have been thrust upon them. The responsibility is overwhelming, with officers blamed for crimes their clients commit.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

Preparing her first report on England’s social care system, the peer says ‘everything is on the table’. This should include older people’s wealth, rather than taxes on younger workers

Residents with advanced dementia lined the day room, glazed stares or sleeping mouths agape, with that terrible human vacancy everyone most fears for their own end days.

This was Millvina House in Anfield, Liverpool, which I visited with Louise Casey, who is heading the commission on social care in England, last week. Here is a snippet of what she saw: an angry man jolting into life, shooting out his arm at her and bellowing: “Out! Get out! Get out!” A young care assistant went to stroke his back and calm him down. It’s a hard job, and part of it is watching for warning signs of aggression, one of dementia’s dreadful symptoms. “People don’t want to know,” Casey said, “but if you are born, you will die. Chances are you will need care, and dementia is the biggest killer.”

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

Alan Milburn is preparing to implement his report to bring young people back into work. Let’s hope the government will see it through

As certainly as the moon pulls on the tides, Labour governments improve the lives of the poorest children. Just as surely, Conservative governments pull back and reverse the good done. Here we go again: despite the social devastation caused by George Osborne’s cuts last time, Kemi Badenoch announces that she wants to impose cuts to universal credit for the poorest if she gets the chance.

She doesn’t do subtle, none of Iain Duncan Smith’s cruel-to-be-kind routine, but goes straight for populist rabble-rousing, stirring up fact-free contempt for anyone on benefits, with a proposed ban on buying cigarettes and alcohol, or gambling, with benefit money. Welfare, she says, must not be “a lifestyle choice for those who can’t be bothered”. As with all crude rightwing populism, the harm she does spreads hatred of the weak. In this most unequal country, it encourages bullies to kick downwards, stifling more generous human instincts.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

I want him to start the fightback next week against extremists who peddle hate and those who despise this country. That would be true patriotism

“The speech” may have been in the making a long while, maybe for a lifetime, but Andy Burnham has only a week left for revision before his first conference as Labour leader. Expect hope, of course, that the future will be better, though the way is hard. Already his optimism means that fewer people think they will be worse off next year. But his most urgent task is the cultural wildfire that needs extinguishing before it takes hold.

The rise of anti-migration neofascism is more threatening than anything I’ve seen in my lifetime. Shock tactics by a few hundred people in black shirts and balaclavas are designed to invade the national consciousness, their noxious hate bleeding into the mainstream – and they do.

The Greens appeal to young and progressive voters here on defence, rent controls and North Sea oil. The Burnham bounce may be about to hit an obstacle

You might think a byelection showdown between two progressive parties is unimportant when the deep struggle for the national heart is between the right bloc and the left – but the result in Holborn and St Pancras matters. It matters for Andy Burnham and Labour because this is a test of the Burnham bounce: he saw off the right in Makerfield – can he win over the left too? Can he show he has enthusiastic approval from voters in southern constituencies as well as those in the north?

For the Greens it matters almost existentially because failing here could send them and their leader, Zack Polanski, back to the political fringes. Holborn and St Pancras, neighbouring Westminster, was vacated (vengefully) by Keir Starmer last week. This plum forever-Labour constituency has attracted 96 Labour applications for selection day on Wednesday, though not, it seems, nationally recognised names.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

The PM’s warmth and feelgood policies, such as scrapping VAT on energy bills and a taskforce looking at political donations, offer something rare: hope

Of all the epithets thrown at a new prime minister, “people-pleaser” bounces off Andy Burnham. After all, the polls have him with a favourability rating of +13, making him the only party leader who scores above zero. His manner as he responded to all 125 of his questioners on his first Commons appearance this week had a warmth and empathy that his predecessor lacked. It’s a natural timbre, a good bedside manner for an uneasy country.

Keir Starmer’s rating as he left office was -36. He was defenestrated precisely because of his unpopularity. That baffled his allies, but his ratings crashed early into an electoral death zone from which no leader returns. His revenge comes in giving Labour a potentially awkward byelection confrontation with Zack Polanski: although, just as Burnham defeated the right in Makerfield, any candidate under his leadership stands a good chance of defeating the Greens in Holborn and St Pancras.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

Most crime figures have drastically fallen, but people don’t believe it. It’s no wonder when politicians whip up emotions and attempt to bend the law

An astounding change is happening to life in England and Wales that most people don’t know about, and when they are told they don’t believe it. Most crime, including violence, has fallen by a remarkable 90% over the past 30 years. But only 6% of people believe it, while 61% think crime is going up. This great denial is the background cause of the prison overflow crisis, as politicians (of all parties) stir up voters to demand ever higher sentences as the imaginary cure to their imaginary soaring crime.

All western European countries enjoy this same remarkable social improvement, with research over decades offering myriad reasons why: populations spending longer in education, CCTV, better security for cars and homes, and young people staying at home to play video games of fantasy crime instead of entertaining themselves with the real thing. Removing brain-harming lead from petrol and abortion of unwanted foetuses at risk of future child neglect are other possible explanations.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

A new survey suggests voters are becoming more cynical and pessimistic. A few goodwill gestures from No 10 won’t change all that – but it’s a start

Who are we, the people Andy Burnham now governs? He inherits a miserable lot: grudging, angry pessimists, expecting the worst of all politicians, trusting no one to lead the country well, according to a long-running study. British folk feel the social contract is broken, they feel let down. Ignorant of basic facts, they are wilfully misled by malevolents.

Over half a century of taking their pulse, Ipsos has collected data on shifting attitudes for the mighty Understanding Society, the largest longitudinal household study in the world, run by the Institute for Social and Economic Research. By chance, this latest national portrait will be the benchmark for Burnham’s era. Here are his people: can he make them feel better? In the end, that’s the great purpose of all politics: you can have good policies, make improvements, do your honest best, as Keir Starmer tried, but if you don’t make the people feel it, then it’s a sounding brass or a tinkling cymbal, as Paul told the Corinthians. Can Burnham lift up their hearts, a bit?

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

The High Pay Centre revealed the excesses of CEO wages. But then anti-diversity winds blew in from across the Atlantic

Shock ricocheted around the world of social research this week with the sudden news of the imminent closure of the High Pay Centre (HPC). Founded in 2011 by the former Guardian business editor Deborah Hargreaves to focus on analysis of extreme pay at the top and the widening pay gap between CEOs and their average employees, its closure feels like the death of an idea.

Others campaign on tax and redistribution but the HPC was concerned with “predistribution”. It was unique in looking at the origins of inequality in pay and control over pay rates. Its annual report is always covered, even by rightwing media, because each year it reawakens a sense of disbelief at the way we live now. Why would the median FTSE 100 CEO need £4.4m this year to do his (yes, mostly still his) gratifyingly high-status job? Why?

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

Our new PM will be hit by multiple crises when he enters No 10. Success or failure will depend on the decisions he makes in first 100 days

On the day the new prime minister steps into No 10, the heap on his doormat will be ceiling-high with missives imploring, advising, warning and counselling. No doubt there will be many pearls of wisdom and some bad ideas too. Each one will involve getting or spending money, decisions for his first totemic 100 days.

It so happens that his first day, 20 July, is the first week of school summer holidays in England and Wales. As he walks into Downing Street, millions of children will leave the school gates “walking into nothing”, as one child told the Children’s Society. Lonely, isolated, caring for siblings, many hungry, some at risk – for those children, six weeks will loom ahead with Covid-like emptiness, home alone as parents work, no splashing in the sunlit waves of the holiday ads.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

He’s the only person who can keep Nigel Farage out of Downing Street, so let’s embrace his unique blend of optimism and realism

As Keir Starmer bid a brief and emotional farewell at that pillory of a lectern, there was a moment for some to ask: what have we done, and why? He’s not a bad man, not a Boris Johnson or Liz Truss rogue prime minister. How decadent, if lack of charisma has become a sacking offence.

But the reason why isn’t written in Westminster. It’s there in councils up and down the country where the hard-right Reform UK troopers swept through last month, from Barnsley to East Sussex. Look north, where Sunderland has 58 Reform councillors to Labour’s five. Look next door at South Tyneside, where Labour was nearly wiped out, left with only one councillor. Many Labour MPs now find themselves all but alone, their local parties hollowed out in an alien sea of Reform. Here’s why it matters beyond the green benches, beyond MPs’ personal careers, out in the very real world where services are (or aren’t) delivered locally.

Ten years on, our writers met to reflect on whether leaving the EU has made the UK richer or more racist – and how the union is doing without us

• Read more from the Brexit Vote: 10 Years On series

Aditya: I have three distinct memories of that entire period: the sense of anger, the sense of the confusion in Westminster and then, afterwards, this quick curdling into a really base form of racism. I remember reporting around south Wales and the north-east of England and then coming back into London, and noticing that one group were talking about their anger and frustration and the other were talking about facts.

If the Makerfield MP is to be our next PM, he needs some immediate and memorable cost of living policies to avoid his predecessor’s fate

Pause here before we rush headlong into the turbulent future. Stop and inhale last week’s rare political triumph, revel in the sunshine of cheery optimism. It was a precious but unfamiliar sensation when life on the progressive side of politics in Britain is so often a litany of hopes dashed and disappointments.

Andy Burnham’s comprehensive victory in the Makerfield byelection, surpassing expectations, was a precious moment. He demolished £5m-Nigel Farage’s party of loathsome Reformers, whose every election candidate seems more repugnant than the last. Hostile hard-right politics in Britain needs defeating time and time again, every time nativists and hate-stirrers – from Enoch Powell to the BNP – erupt in our politics.

One plan would see young workers offered early access to a slice of future pensions. It’s not perfect, but we need bold ideas

While we wait with nail-biting anxiety for the voters of Makerfield to decide the fate of the country, the prospect of renewal at the top provides a fertile time for breeding ideas and confronting great problems. Alan Milburn’s searing analysis of the first generation ever to do worse financially than their parents did at their age opens the door to people with solutions to this crisis. Now is the time to bring them out.

Among the thinktanks, voluntary sector and business organisations coming forward with ideas, this week the Social Market Foundation (SMF) is offering an inventive plan to help ease the growing inequality between those young people gifted some wealth and the majority who have none. We are now in the time of the “great wealth transfer”, with an estimated £5.5tn to be passed down by the baby boomer generation in the UK over the next three decades. My lucky generation had everything for free. Ordinary salaries bought homes easily and property values rocketed to make homeowners wealthy beyond all expectations, even as the UK has gotten relatively poorer compared to other European and North American countries.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

The decision not to test all men and only screen the most at risk, including black men, is fact-based. Yet it’s been called ‘two-tier’ – and labelled as misandry

If the country seems to be slipping away from reason and trust in science, blame usually falls on modern phenomena such as social media and its fantastical influencers. Or on the US health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr’s bizarre anti-vaccine, anti-fluoride, anti-evidence lunacy. But campaigns against the UK national screening committee’s decision to limit prostate cancer testing have been run by British bastions of the sort laying claim to “common sense”. They include two Tory ex-prime ministers, David Cameron and Rishi Sunak (who see themselves as sensibles, unlike Boris Johnson and Liz Truss), joined by their Tory/Reform media, especially the Mail and the Telegraph, plus a host of distinguished campaigners such as Stephen Fry, fount of QI knowledge.

The national screening committee (NSC) has for a long time resisted a call for universal testing of all men for prostate cancer, though it kills 12,000 men a year in the UK. I was on the committee in the 1990s, and it was besieged by demands for screening for prostate cancer and numerous other conditions. These were often refused for unreasonable cost, but this decision is about harm to men, not about money.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

Finally, Labour is talking policy, thanks to the leadership contest and Tony Blair’s intervention – and the centre-right is making a much-needed fightback too

“Wouldn’t it be great if Tony Blair kept his mouth shut about the Labour party?” Readers may have cheered that Guardian letter-writer’s response to yet another infuriating assault by Blair from the outer-stratosphere of nowhere. Isn’t Labour in enough trouble with a life-or-death byelection against the forces of darkness without incoming fire from its former leader?

Actually, no. His intentions may not have been benign, but Blair does Labour and national politics a favour, prising open the political omertà preventing serious discussion within parties. There can’t be a new prime minister installed without an honest reckoning of the precarious state of the nation.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

The new and excoriating account of the dire prospects for UK young people is a call to action. It could be the Beveridge report for our time

The diagnosis is dire. Alan Milburn has published the first part of his forensic report on the lives and chances of young people, their fate after leaving school or college, the inadequacy of their health, education and pastoral care, and the reluctance of employers to hire them. This is a “moral crisis”, he says. There are now more than a million young people not in work, education or training (Neets), and Milburn expects that number to rise to 1.25 million without radical change. The government needs a “big idea”, he tells me. This should be it, “the spine, the purpose”.

Perhaps he was expected only to solve the particular problem of left-behind and lost Neets. What he has delivered instead is an excoriating overview of how badly this young generation is treated altogether. A sense of shock reverberates through every well-written page. Why have children and young people had such a low priority in resources and political concern, especially since 2010? There has been institutional neglect, loss of youth and careers services, chaotic non-communication or data exchange between dislocated silos, small schemes coming and going. Milburn describes a catastrophic failure: it needs a whole “system reset” and no more “tinkering”.

Rejoining the EU, massive tax reform, scrapping the pension triple lock – a new leader must summon a sense of emergency and deal with the big issues

Labour is in the deepest trouble. A juicy leadership drama ignites all Westminster-watchers, another spellbinding live-action theatre of rising and falling stars, duels, betrayals of trust, new alliances and old ones broken.

Some would pull back from this vortex. Is regicide absolutely necessary when “stability” is what people and markets say they want and vox pops groan, “Not another one!” After less than two years, with worse turmoil ahead from the Trump war, now, really?

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist

His speech today was OK, but nowhere near enough. Now the risk is that the longer he stays in No 10, the harder it will be to stop Britain’s Trump

Calamity, cataclysm, catastrophe: the lexicon ran out of words for Labour’s plight. Keir Starmer’s career-saving “reset” needed to be monumental. It was … OK-ish. But it didn’t dispel the sense of a country with no overall control. As ever, his tacking neither right or left, as he wrote in the Guardian, sends many Labour people into paroxysms of despair, when last week it lost most votes leftwards.

Britain at the heart of Europe was absolutely the right message, “shoulder to shoulder with the countries that share our interests, our values and our enemies” on growth, defence and energy. But as Starmer said himself, “incremental change won’t cut it”. His message lacked the ear-splitting sounds of red lines snapping and a manifesto straitjacket bursting open. Tiptoeing towards the single market and customs unions for a manifesto three years away doesn’t cut the mustard. What voters sniff, remainers and leavers alike, is the odour of cowardice, an unwillingness to say what he and Labour undoubtedly feel about Europe – rejoin ASAP.

Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist