Midterm Elections: Who Is Winning the Race for Congress?

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Exclusive: Chancellor to target sector in his first budget, to help offset Iran war’s damage to public finances
John Healey is poised to tax Britain’s banks in his 28 October budget, to help offset the damage inflicted on the public finances by war in the Middle East, the Guardian understands.
The chancellor is in Bangkok, where the International Monetary Fund has praised the UK’s progress towards balancing the books, urging him to “stay the course”.
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© Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

© Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

© Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters
Move comes as Senator Elizabeth Warren condemns Barclays response to questions over ex-boss’s ties to sex offender
US lawmakers have unveiled a new bill to hold Wall Street’s “Epstein-connected” bosses to account for helping finance the late sex offender’s crimes.
It came as top Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren condemned the UK bank Barclays for “dodging responsibility” over its failure to vet former boss Jes Staley and his ties to the once well-connected billionaire.
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© Photograph: Uma Sanghvi/AP

© Photograph: Uma Sanghvi/AP

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Surge in EHCP applications poses risk to public finances and may lead to deteriorating levels of support
Councils are warning of potentially “catastrophic” debts, which are forecast to reach a record £10bn over the next 18 months, as a result of rapid growth in demand for special educational needs and disability (Send) support in English schools.
Although the government recently cleared more than £5bn in historic council Send debts, a surge in requests has led to authorities predicting they will have re-accrued that debt figure by April, and doubled it by 2028.
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© Photograph: Don Tonge/Alamy

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Thinktank’s influential pre-budget report urges key decisions to be made now and not put off until next year
John Healey has been warned by Britain’s leading tax and spending experts that his budget risks being a “work of fiction” unless he sets out plans to cover £35bn in spending pressures.
As the war in the Middle East rattles the public finances, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the damage from higher inflation meant the chancellor would need to either top up funds for his current government spending plans or impose deep real-terms cuts by the end of the decade.
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© Photograph: UK MOD Crown copyright/Royal Navy/Reuters

© Photograph: UK MOD Crown copyright/Royal Navy/Reuters
Some say party risks ‘looking twee’ by focusing on small fixes amid growing nervousness that budget lacks ambition
In the days since Labour’s annual conference, party insiders have been sharing a word cloud produced by the pollsters More in Common, which shows the phrases voters most associate with Andy Burnham.
Such polling is rarely flattering for politicians, and the prime minister’s version had its fair share of negatives. But one of the most prominent words in the cloud – and the one that has caught the imagination of Labour strategists – was “trying”.
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