While Labour braces for a rout that could see off Starmer, a rising drive to keep out Farage is complicating expectations

• Small swings, high drama: why UK polls are less volatile than they seem – in charts

Local elections are often regarded as a referendum on the sitting government, with many previous administrations taking a bloody nose from the electorate but successfully fighting back by the next general election.

Senior Labour figures have taken to reeling off a list of midterm results – 1999, 2003, 2012 – to prove that point. “As we get closer to the general election, it will be less about people’s view of the parties generally and more about the actual choice in front of them,” one said.