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… and on that very subject, this is great fun / dangerously addictive. Fiddle around, and find out how quickly the draw can get all out of whack when just one of the leading contenders fails to win their group, as they did when I ran my model. Oh Spain, that last-minute equaliser for Cape Verde so costly! The knock-on effect was an all-Iberian quarter-final clash with Portugal, who swept them aside just as they did in the Nations League last year. Portugal went on to the final, where they were beaten by Turkey, who had surprised Germany in the semis. I had Scotland making the quarters, as well, so I wouldn’t rush out to the bookies and lump big on any of this. But yes, great fun.

… so having talked about not getting too far ahead of ourselves too soon, here’s a piece about England’s route to glory, as determined by Opta and their big calculator. Hey, we’re nothing if not a broad church.

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Ewan also wrote our Scotland preview.

Clarke is pragmatic in approach but it will be a shock if he does not start with two strikers for game one against Haiti. Victory there and Scotland have a genuine chance of progression from the first round for the first time. There is also a lingering reason for Clarke to at least appear bold; he was castigated by supporters for negative tactics in a must-win match against Hungary at the last Euros.

A more defensive style is likely and understandable against Morocco and Brazil, who simply put are better teams than Scotland. Clarke’s team can be useful in such a situation; they are excellently drilled and carry a counterattacking threat.

Clarke insists he cannot alter plans on account of potential fitness setbacks.

“Do you want to wrap them in cotton wool and [they] don’t train?” Clarke asked. “You need to work. Injuries are part and parcel of football. When it happens, especially when it happens in the circumstances it happened to Billy, it is really disappointing. Everybody has got to take a deep breath and move forward again. That is what we will do.”

• USA face Germany in final World Cup tune-up match

• Bracketology: predict a path to World Cup victory

• Reach out to Bryan on Bluesky or by email

2 min: An early free kick given to Germany as Nmecha is brought down by Adams. Sané will take it.

1 min: And we’re off! The US kick off and attack from left to right in white shirts and blue shorts. Germany are going from right to left in their all-black strips.