The stock market got a long-awaited jolt of volatility late last week after disappointing earnings from technology giants added to angst around the AI-driven rally.
While some investors position for AI earnings, geopolitics and interest rates to send stocks either to new highs or into a tailspin, zero-day option traders have increasingly bet that the S&P 500 Index will remain calm.
Accelerating US inflation and tremors across the AI sector jolted stocks in recent days, and some investors are now betting that bigger swings in tech shares will finally spread to the broader market.
Equity option traders will be looking for the market to break out of its inertia as tech company earnings collide with a Federal Reserve meeting and US midterm elections.
With equities, gold and oil struggling to make new highs while Treasury yields surge, Wall Street strategists are focusing on trades that pit one asset class against another.
While the upcoming US midterm election is one of the biggest events left on the market’s calendar for this year, derivatives pricing indicates traders aren’t expecting especially big moves in stock benchmarks.
Investors looking to hedge as the equity rally stalls in the face of rising interest rates and oil prices are split between protecting against a fast selloff or a slow grind lower.
Gold bulls rejuvenated by the Treasury Department’s efforts to keep US borrowing costs in check are turning to exotic options and spreads to bet on higher bullion prices.
While the recent equity-market turbulence is subsiding, options positioning shows how quickly investor sentiment can switch between the extremes of fear and greed.
Betting that individual stocks will be volatile while the S&P 500 stays relatively calm has been a popular and successful hedge fund strategy. But with the swings in share prices reaching extreme levels, the reverse trade is gaining traction with investors.
The dominance of a few technology giants in the benchmark S&P 500 Index is now carrying over into the niche market for dividend futures and options.
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, Nov. 17, 2025. Wall Street traders gearing up for Nvidia Corp.’s earnings and a key jobs report refrained from making big bets as both events will be key in shaping the outlook for markets throughout the rest of 2025. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
The dominance of a few technology giants in the benchmark S&P 500 Index is now carrying over into the niche market for dividend futures and options.
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, Nov. 17, 2025. Wall Street traders gearing up for Nvidia Corp.’s earnings and a key jobs report refrained from making big bets as both events will be key in shaping the outlook for markets throughout the rest of 2025. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
Trading in US-listed options on Futu Holdings Ltd. and Up Fintech Holding Ltd. surged just before China’s regulator’s announcement that it planned to penalize them triggered a record share slump.
The tech-fueled stock rally is looking bubble-like to some investors, and they’re turning to exotic options that better protect against an eventual slump.
With equities back to their highs after a V-shaped recovery from the Iran oil shock, investors are increasingly caught between left and right tail risks: The tireless AI and semiconductor rally on one side and the gradual drag from higher energy prices on the other.