Over the holiday period, the Guardian leader column is looking ahead at the themes of 2026. Today we look at how the struggle to adapt to a dangerously warming world has become a test of global justice

The record-breaking 252mph winds of Hurricane Melissa that devastated Caribbean islands at the end of October were made five times more likely by the climate crisis. Scorching wildfire weather in Spain and Portugal during the summer was made 40 times more likely, while June’s heatwave in England was made 100 times more likely.

Attribution science has made one thing clear: global heating is behind today’s extreme weather. That greenhouse gas emissions warmed the planet was understood. What can now be shown is that this warming produces record heatwaves and more violent storms with increasing frequency.

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© Photograph: Ina Sotirova/The Guardian

© Photograph: Ina Sotirova/The Guardian

© Photograph: Ina Sotirova/The Guardian

The Silicon Valley college town has changed drastically as Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page and other tech founders have scooped up multiple properties.

© Loren Elliott for The New York Times

Morgan Geyser, who was convicted after she stabbed a friend in 2014 to please a fictional character, was arrested last month after she cut off a monitoring bracelet and fled from a group home.

© Morry Gash/Associated Press

Four of the additions are for districts where President Trump won handily, but Democrats are feeling emboldened by election outcomes this fall.

© Eric Lee/The New York Times

From enslavement to Windrush to Hurricane Melissa, there is a clear pattern to the way Britain has extracted wealth and fractured families

Britain’s long history with the Caribbean, from enslavement to the Windrush scandal, is marked by policies that have fractured families. The Home Office’s latest actions show little has changed. After the devastation of Hurricane Melissa, a tropical cyclone that made landfall across the Greater Antilles area in late October, eight-year-old Lati-Yana Stephanie Brown was left destitute in Jamaica. But after her UK-resident parents appealed for the Home Office to expedite her visa application, officials rejected it and Lati-Yana has been left to sleep on the floor of her elderly grandmother’s destroyed home.

But the rejection rested on factual errors, according to Lati-Yana’s mother, Kerrian Bigby. Dawn Butler, her MP, shared a letter with me raising concerns about “misrepresentations” in the decision notice, including the claim that Bigby does not have full parental responsibility for the child, which she says is false.

Nadine White is a journalist, film-maker and the UK’s first race correspondent

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© Photograph: Jonny White/Alamy

© Photograph: Jonny White/Alamy

© Photograph: Jonny White/Alamy

Dawn Butler leads calls for humanitarian visas and fee waivers for vulnerable relatives of UK nationals affected by storm

British MPs have joined campaigners calling for more aid and humanitarian visas for Jamaicans to enter the UK after Hurricane Melissa demolished parts of the country, plunging hundreds of thousands of people into a humanitarian crisis.

The UK has pledged £7.5m emergency funds to Jamaica and other islands affected by the hurricane, but many argue that the country has a moral obligation to do more for former Caribbean colonies.

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© Photograph: Raquel Cunha/Reuters

© Photograph: Raquel Cunha/Reuters

© Photograph: Raquel Cunha/Reuters

The move came one day after the Pentagon said it was investigating Senator Mark Kelly for his participation in the video.

© Jason Andrew for The New York Times

The defense secretary called the senator’s remarks urging troops not to follow illegal orders “despicable, reckless, and false.”

© Kenny Holston/The New York Times

The woman, Morgan Geyser, was taken into custody a day after she left a group home in Wisconsin. The police said she cut off a monitoring bracelet.

© Morry Gash/Associated Press

The firing put the school at the center of national debates over gender identity and academic freedom. A faculty panel ruled unanimously against the termination.

© Timothy Hurst/College Station Eagle, via Associated Press

Six lawmakers, who all served in the military or the intelligence community, released the message in a video. The Trump administration sharply criticized the effort.

© Philip Cheung for The New York Times

‘Less expensive and time consuming’ model helps with fast and accurate predictions, possibly saving lives and property

When then Tropical Storm Melissa was churning south of Haiti, Philippe Papin, a National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologist, had confidence it was about to grow into a monster hurricane.

As the lead forecaster on duty, he predicted that in just 24 hours the storm would become a category 4 hurricane and begin a turn towards the coast of Jamaica. No NHC forecaster had ever issued such a bold forecast for rapid strengthening.

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© Photograph: Goes-19/Cira/Noaa/Planet Pix/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

© Photograph: Goes-19/Cira/Noaa/Planet Pix/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

© Photograph: Goes-19/Cira/Noaa/Planet Pix/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

The increasing ferocity and frequency of tropical storms imposes an unbearable burden on countries including Jamaica

The geographically uneven risks from increasingly extreme and dangerous weather grow ever starker. As Jamaica and other Caribbean countries clear up after Hurricane Melissa, and Typhoon Kalmaegi heads west after killing nearly 200 people in the Philippines and Vietnam, the case for more international support to countries facing the most destructive impacts from global heating has never been stronger.

Last week’s five-day rainfall in Jamaica was made twice as likely by higher temperatures, according to initial findings from climate attribution studies. The current death toll across the Caribbean is at least 75. The economic and social costs are hard to quantify in a region that is still recovering from 2024’s Hurricane Beryl. Crucial infrastructure has been destroyed before the loans used to build it have even been paid off. Andrew Holness, Jamaica’s prime minister, estimates that the damage there is roughly equivalent to one-third of the country’s gross domestic product.

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© Photograph: Raquel Cunha/Reuters

© Photograph: Raquel Cunha/Reuters

© Photograph: Raquel Cunha/Reuters