If the Makerfield MP is to be our next PM, he needs some immediate and memorable cost of living policies to avoid his predecessor’s fate

Pause here before we rush headlong into the turbulent future. Stop and inhale last week’s rare political triumph, revel in the sunshine of cheery optimism. It was a precious but unfamiliar sensation when life on the progressive side of politics in Britain is so often a litany of hopes dashed and disappointments.

Andy Burnham’s comprehensive victory in the Makerfield byelection, surpassing expectations, was a precious moment. He demolished £5m-Nigel Farage’s party of loathsome Reformers, whose every election candidate seems more repugnant than the last. Hostile hard-right politics in Britain needs defeating time and time again, every time nativists and hate-stirrers – from Enoch Powell to the BNP – erupt in our politics.

In just 48 hours, the PM has felt the weight of political gravity and shifted from initial adamance he would fight on

Rapid change has hardly been unusual in British politics in recent years, but the change of tone from Keir Starmer and his supporters in just 48 hours has been striking – and appears to chart the shift in his position on his own future from one of defiance to glum acceptance.

While PM’s desire to fight was strong, time with his inner circle at Chequers sharpened his sense of the inevitable

On Friday, as the dust settled on Andy Burnham’s thumping victory in the Makerfield byelection, Keir Starmer was in defiant mood. “I have said repeatedly, I am not going to walk away,” the prime minister said, adding: “Let’s pull together as a party and a movement.”

Just 48 hours later, one of his most loyal ministers was on the BBC sending a very different message. “I don’t want to come on here and be delusional that there is no process, there are no forces at work which are challenging the prime minister as leader – that is clearly the case,” said the business secretary, Peter Kyle.

Business secretary says PM spending the weekend ‘making time to reflect on the political realities’ he faces

• Keir Starmer expected to announce departure as prime minister on Monday

Some commentators have said Andy Burnham is just a better communicator than Keir Starmer, but have questioned how different he is on policy.

The Guardian’s policy editor, Kiran Stacey, has helpfully looked at the political projects a Burnham government would likely pursue in this useful explainer:

Some Labour MPs still want former mayor to face ‘scrutiny’ of ideas through contested leadership race

Allies of Andy Burnham are increasingly confident of a coronation-style transfer of power after the number of MPs backing him for the Labour leadership surged following his byelection victory.

Burnham and his team are understood to have spent the last few days enlisting the support of MPs and ministers, as he prepares to challenge Keir Starmer in the coming weeks.

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A losing streak? Makerfield shows mounting dangers for Nigel Farage

From Restore and tactical voting to questions over that £5m gift, the Reform leader faces challenges on several fronts, writes senior political correspondent Peter Walker.

As those around Nigel Farage are fond of pointing out, Reform UK has now led in more than 300 consecutive national polls. When it comes to byelections, though, it is fair to say the party’s results are more mixed.

Yes, Robert Kenyon came second in Makerfield to a popular regional mayor backed by a Labour campaign so relentless that the main risk was annoying voters by knocking too often on their doors. Kenyon also increased his and Reform’s share of the vote from the 2024 general election.

Having literally campaigned in poetry, the new Makerfield MP needs a summer of knuckling down to the small print

By the end, it had become less a byelection, more a mythical quest. Whoever could draw the sword from Makerfield’s stone – or more prosaically, beat Reform in a seat where it practically swept the board in last month’s local elections – would claim the divine right to rule the Labour party. And lo, on Friday morning, Andy Burnham became the chosen one.

He carries the magic shield of not being from Westminster – though that won’t last, obviously – plus the easy warmth with people that Keir Starmer lacks, and the rare ability to generate excitement in politics. Reform is beatable, and the sun shines brighter for knowing that. A third successive defeat for Nigel Farage in a winnable byelection, after losing Caerphilly to Plaid Cymru and Gorton and Denton to the Greens, suggests a trend, not a fluke.

Gaby Hinsliff is a Guardian columnist

British love of silliness comes to the fore when politicians stand shoulder to shoulder with satirical rivals

When world leaders are elected, it is usually a solemn moment, but when the Labour party veteran Andy Burnham found out he had won the Makerfield byelection, increasing the likelihood he could become the next prime minister, he was standing next to a man with a bin on his head.

The newest Labour MP was also flanked by a man in a fox costume. Robert Pownall, the founder of the campaign group Protect the Wild, decided to run as a fox in order to demand an end to trail hunting.

Ministers say PM faces being forced out by party if he does not act, with one calling his departure inevitable

• How quickly could Burnham become PM?

Cabinet ministers loyal to Keir Starmer have told him he faces being forced out of office by his party if he does not set a timetable for his departure by the end of the weekend.

Andy Burnham, who won a compelling majority in the Makerfield byelection overnight, is expected to travel to London on Monday to meet MPs in the expectation of becoming prime minister within weeks. One cabinet minister – who has not previously told the prime minister to go – said his departure was now inevitable.

Andy Burnham’s resounding win in the Makerfield byelection has set the stage for a leadership battle with Keir Starmer. The outgoing mayor of Greater Manchester received more votes than Reform and Restore combined, and the nature of the victory has prompted speculation he could replace Starmer as prime minister within weeks, if not days. Annie Kelly speaks to political correspondent Alexandra Topping

The unstoppable Nigel Farage is looking increasingly stoppable in the wake of Makerfield. The actual prime minister, meanwhile, has gone into hiding

You’ll note Keir Starmer is in full bunker mode – and we’ll get to him – but after this Makerfield result, why isn’t Nigel Farage? Why isn’t Nigel ranting madly at his generals and refusing to admit that actually, everything that went wrong for Reform here flowed directly from his personal character, and is going to keep happening in one way or another because people don’t change. Nigel’s gonna Nigel.

Nobody fetishises plain speaking like Farage, so we owe it to him to honour that and observe that Reform really shat the bed. Makerfield is among the party’s top 10 target seats for a general election, and Reform strategists’ decision to field yet another inadequate liability, whose past social media activity they simply couldn’t be arsed checking, seems to have proved something of a turn-off – for example for women, who strangely didn’t feel minded to vote for someone who had said: “I’m sexist, sorry but I am.” Rob Kenyon will no doubt be back on his plumbing rounds next week. So, Makerfield ladies, make sure your husband’s home to be consulted as to whether you really want your sink unblocked. It’ll honestly be cheaper to replace it.

Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist

Andy Burnham has shown Labour can beat Reform. He must show that his promise of change is a programme, not another slogan for power

Andy Burnham’s triumph in the Makerfield byelection leaves the prime minister with only two options: fight openly for the Labour leadership, or leave office cleanly. The former Greater Manchester mayor easily saw off Reform UK’s candidate – winning 55% of the vote to his rightwing rival’s 35%. He won largely because he changed the political meaning of voting Labour in Makerfield. With Mr Burnham, the party went from being the unpopular incumbent to being the vehicle for change.

The prime minister’s implicit claim that it was Starmerism that beat Reform is not credible. The polling by Persuasion UK in Makerfield shows that Labour won because of Mr Burnham’s personal brand, anti-Starmer signalling and leftwing economic message. Significantly, Mr Burnham’s victory rally speech on Friday connects with the data. He was offering, in rhetoric, economic security through a visible state. This is not just redistribution, but the state as buyer, planner and manager. That would be a welcome shift, but how would he deliver cheaper essentials, more public control, fiscal expansion, industrial renewal and fairer rules on housing, work and migration? Mr Burnham’s programme needs to be more than slogans.

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From Restore and tactical voting to questions over that £5m gift, the Reform leader faces challenges on several fronts

As those around Nigel Farage are fond of pointing out, Reform UK has now led in more than 300 consecutive national polls. When it comes to byelections, though, it is fair to say the party’s results are more mixed.

Yes, Robert Kenyon came second in Makerfield to a popular regional mayor backed by a Labour campaign so relentless that the main risk was annoying voters by knocking too often on their doors. Kenyon also increased his and Reform’s share of the vote from the 2024 general election.

After partying into the early hours, supporters were back for the new Makerfield MP’s victory rally which ended with a madcap escape

There was plenty of the hopey, changey stuff from Andy Burnham at his victory rally on the morning after the night before – but it ended with the new MP for Makerfield doing a runner. “Are you going to become the new prime minister?” shouted Sky’s political editor, Beth Rigby, at the retreating Burnham. “Keir Starmer says he is not going to give way – what’s your message for Keir Starmer?”

Hemmed in by cameras, chairs, tables and a whole load of the giggling supporters who had been assembled around him on the turf at Ashton Town FC’s grounds, Burnham picked up the pace.

Greater Manchester mayor says result represents Labour’s ‘final chance to change’, after soundly beating Reform UK and Restore Britain

• UK politics – live updates

Andy Burnham has set up a potential showdown with Keir Starmer after convincingly winning the Makerfield byelection, paving the way for his return to Westminster and a likely tilt at the Labour leadership.

The outgoing mayor of Greater Manchester promised change after winning the byelection in the early hours of Friday morning with 55% of the votes and a majority almost double the size of his predecessor, Josh Simons.

From a hopeless candidate to botched strategy, this latest byelection defeat is telling. But for Labour, there is still a long and arduous journey ahead

The day before the voters of Makerfield chose their new MP, I stood with my camera-wielding colleague John Domokos on the main road through the post-industrial town of Hindley. Every two or three minutes, a van or small truck drew level with us, and there it was again: a honked horn, and a full-throated shout of “Reform!”

But on our side of the street was an augury of the news to come: the house of a man called Les, who had views most Guardian readers would find deeply problematic, and no less than seven placards adorned with the logo of Rupert Lowe MP’s new mega-right outfit, Restore Britain. “Farage has lost it,” Les told us. In at least one sense, the result – Labour’s Andy Burnham triumphing with 55% of the vote, Reform on 35%, and Restore managing 7% – proved he was spot on.

Andy Burnham’s positive vision has struck a powerful blow to Reform – but the PM risks diminishing the impact by clinging on in No 10

• Neal Lawson is director of the cross-party campaign organisation Compass

That tingle of emotion you felt when you awoke today? That is the long-lost feeling of progressive hope. That it comes from Makerfield is all the more remarkable. Reform has been defeated in a seat that it should have won at a canter – trailing Labour, even when its voteshare is combined with that of Restore. It finished second there in the 2024 election and it recently won all of the council seats. If Reform had faced any other politician, its candidate, Robert Kenyon, would be heading to Westminster.

But Reform was up against Andy Burnham, probably the only Labour candidate who could have held Makerfield. He is the only candidate for the party’s leadership who can defeat Reform, and the causes of Reform, and bring in a new era of progressive government. To say there was a lot riding on Makerfield would be a massive understatement.

Reform UK party leader calls Andy Burnham’s byelection win ‘emphatic’ and makes appeal to voters of far-right Restore Britain

• UK politics – live updates

• Andy Burnham wins by huge majority

Nigel Farage has urged people who voted for Restore Britain in the Makerfield byelection to back Reform UK instead, after what he accepted had been a “disappointing” night for his party.

Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, came second to Andy Burnham, but was more than 9,000 votes behind after what was often a difficult campaign for the local plumber, who was dogged by questions about sexist comments and other social media posts.

Size of Makerfield victory has many allies hoping outgoing Greater Manchester mayor will be installed in No 10 within days

• UK politics – live updates

• How quickly could Burnham become PM?

Speaking hours before polls closed in Makerfield, a Downing Street source acknowledged a rare moment of doubt about the prime minister’s future. “Keir will fight on,” the source said, repeating the message to which Keir Starmer has stuck for several weeks. “Although, that might depend on the size of the majority.”

In the end, Andy Burnham’s majority was so convincing that allies hope he can be installed in No 10 within days. Louise Haigh, the Labour MP who helped run Burnham’s campaign, said on Thursday night: “I hope that [Starmer] will consider an orderly and managed transition.