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Economists Boost US Inflation Forecast, Push Out Fed Cut on War

Economists raised their US inflation estimates and pushed out their timeline for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as the price shock triggered by the Iran war starts to spread beyond higher energy costs.

A FedEx Corp. worker unloads packages from a truck in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, May 4, 2026. Stocks fell from all-time highs as oil climbed on concerns that heightened Middle East tensions could threaten a fragile ceasefire, keeping energy costs elevated while fueling inflation risks.
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Economists Raise US Inflation Forecasts as Iran War Drags On

Economists raised their estimates for US inflation and said they expect only one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year amid elevated energy costs sparked by the Iran war.

A fuel tanker at a Costco gas station in Richmond, California, US, on Thursday, March 19, 2026. US diesel rose above $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022, the latest sign of surging fuel price pressures menacing the global economy as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies.
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Economists See War Pushing US Inflation Above 3%, Hurting Growth

Economists raised their estimates for US inflation through year-end, while trimming consumer spending, growth and employment projections as the war in Iran drives up fuel costs.

A shopper carries an Alo Yoga bag in the SoHo neighborhood of New York, US, on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release advance monthly sales for retail and food services figures on February 17.
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Global Inflation Expected to Pick Up From Iran War, Survey Shows

Inflation around the world is expected to pick up due to the war with Iran, while growth prospects remain largely unaffected for now, according to a global survey of economists by Bloomberg News.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 27: People walk along Broadway with shopping bags in Manhattan on February 27, 2026 in New York City. Newly released Producer Price Index figures showed that prices rose 0.5% in January for American consumers, while "core" prices increased by 0.8%. The numbers, released by the Labor Department, sent major stock indexes sharply lower on Friday. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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