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Normale Ansicht

What Are Kalshi and Polymarket?

11. September 2026 um 15:35
Prediction markets have taken off in popularity, drawing billions of dollars in trades. Some states have tried to ban them.

© Karsten Moran for The New York Times

An ad for Kalshi in 2024. The huge popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket has raised fears about how susceptible they are to manipulation by those with insider information.

Prediction Firms Are Flagging Insider Traders. Many Will Not Face Charges.

12. August 2026 um 18:25
The agency that polices the industry does not have the staffing, the legal tools or the will to broadly crack down on wagers that are easily manipulated, experts say.

© Laura Brett/ZUMA Press, via Reuters

Kalshi, a leading prediction market, referred 32 possible insider traders to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the three months ending in June.

Minnesota Judge Blocks First State Ban on Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket

28. Juli 2026 um 03:49
The law, which would make it a felony for most prediction markets to operate and advertise in the state, was set to take effect on Saturday.

© Eric Helgas for The New York Times

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity in recent months.

U.S. Begins Investigating Polymarket, a Test of a Key Regulator

Last year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission overruled its enforcement attorneys and killed a separate inquiry into whether the Trump-tied company was illegally serving U.S. customers.

© Associated Press

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission. has begun investigating Polymarket, a prediction market company tied to Donald Trump Jr.

How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission purged its ranks, dialed back its enforcement and boosted industries in which President Trump’s family is heavily invested.

© Jason Andrew for The New York Times

The building in Washington that houses the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Minnesota Becomes First State to Ban Prediction Markets

20. Mai 2026 um 00:37
Like at least other 14 states, Minnesota has wrestled with how to regulate the popular prediction market sites. Federal officials sued the state over its new law.

© Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times

The Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul. Legislators passed a law to make it illegal to host or advertise a prediction market site in Minnesota.

Senate Bans Prediction Markets for Its Members and Staff

30. April 2026 um 23:13
Senators voted unanimously to prohibit betting practices in the chamber after some users made hundreds of thousands of dollars online by accurately predicting U.S. military actions.

© Karsten Moran for The New York Times

Anonymous users of prediction markets like Kalshi can bet on a certain outcome of future events, including major policy decisions of the U.S. government.

Trump Says He Dislikes Prediction Markets. His Family Invests in Them.

24. April 2026 um 20:44
The White House has warned staff not to wager on government decisions, but his family’s involvement with these firms undermines the president’s message.

© Eric Lee for The New York Times

President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has ties to two of the industry’s top prediction market firms, including Polymarket, a platform that prosecutors say a U.S. soldier used to place bets using classified information.

White House Warned Staff Not to Engage in Insider Trading Amid War With Iran

10. April 2026 um 01:56
The directive came amid a surge of suspiciously well-timed trades on oil and prediction markets just ahead of crucial moments in the conflict.

© Tierney L. Cross/The New York Times

Reporters working outside of the West Wing of the White House on Tuesday.

Leading Prediction Firms Share a Commonality: Donald Trump Jr.

15. Januar 2026 um 10:02
Traders in companies with ties to the president’s eldest son can bet on the outcome of events the president affects.

© Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press

Donald Trump Jr. is both an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket, and a paid adviser to Kalshi, the two biggest prediction markets.
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